The Warnock-Walker runoff election is on December 6, 2022. That’s less than a month between the general election and the runnoff. There were 3.98 million votes cast in the Warnock-Walker-Oliver race for senate. About 40,000 votes separated them.

The way votes are distributed in the state may determine the outcome. I provide some data for you to examine to help you think about the outcome.

There are many factors that will influence the outcome. Perhaps the most influential is the balance of power in the US Senate. This was the case when Rafael Warnock (and Jon Ossoff) ran in dual runoffs in January 2021. The Democrats needed to win both seats that were open in Georgia. Warnock and Ossoff defeated their opponents, Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, thereby enabling the Democrats to control the senate.

We are in the same situation in 2022. There are three senate races that will determine the control of the senate. They are in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Since the Georgia runoff won’t take place until December 6, we won’t know the control of the senate until then.

Distribution of Votes by County, The 80/20 Rule

I prepared two Pareto charts to analyze the votes in the Warnock and Walker race for senate. These are duplicate charts. The charts combine a bar and line graph of votes in the Warnock/Walker race for senate. The bar graph shows the number of votes in the top 40 counties of the state. The line graph plots the percentage of votes. In Figure 1, note that the vote attained by the top 40 counties was 80% of the total vote. This is an example of the 80/20 Pareto chart rule. The rule states that 80% of the effects (votes in this case) come from 20% of the causes (counties in this case). In Figure 2, I’ve marked up the graph showing the 80% line and the definition of the 80/20 rule.

Given the results shown in the following charts, where would you put your emphasis on knocking on doors, or targeting media locations?

The charts shown above tell us a lot about how the votes are distributed, and also where these voters are located. 80% of the voters are in 20% of our state.

Margins

Figure 3 shows a third Pareto chart. In this one, I looked at the data for the top 20 counties, and reported who won and by what margin (%). For example, in Fulton County, which has the highest population in the state, Warnock won the most votes and by a margin of 49. In fact out of the top 10 largest counties by population, Warnock won seven of these by wide margins. Walker also won some of the top 20 counties, some by large margins.

Why Would Anyone Vote for Walker?

I was in a barber shop I frequent this morning, and everyone was asking each other, “Why would anyone vote for Herschel Walker?” I’ve been asked the same question by friends around the country. There are many reasons that people voted for Walker.

Walker was a football star who attended the University of Georgia (UGA) in the early 80s. He didn’t graduate, although he says he did. UGA won the national championship when Walker played. Lots of folks remember him. And, Georgia is filled with UGA graduates, and football fans who didn’t attend the university. And, the UGA has the top rated team in the country. You need to bring that into your thinking when you ask, Why would people vote for Herschel. Even with the turmoil that his past has created, he has used Trump’s strategy of denial to move ahead.

But Georgians remember Walker because of football. In fact, when some people show up at his rallies, they are dressed in UGA gear, or wearing Trump MAGA red hats. UGA caps are also red. Can’t dismiss this. Walker also played football for Donald Trump’s American Football League team, the New Jersey Generals. His politics are those of Donald Trump.

Election Denial

Election denial is a reality for a lot of politicians and citizens in Georgia. Although Walker isn’t a Georgia citizen (he lives in Texas) he embraced Trump’s Big Lie in 2020. In fact in December 2021, Walker suggested that the seven swing states that Trump lost in the 2020 election conduct a “do-over” of the election. Georgia posses two other election deniers who speak openly of the Big Lie. They are former state senator Bert Jones (elected in Nov. as lieutenant governor) and U.S. Rep, Marjorie Taylor Green. Walker has been influenced by these politicians, but especially Trump. There are millions of Georgians who also believe Trump’s Big Lie. If they show up at the runoff, they probably will vote for Walker.

Another reason that people voted for Walker was because he was on the ticket with six other Republicans, including Brian Kemp, who swept to victory over Tracy Abrams. Lots of people simply voted for all the Republicans on the ticket. They would have voted the same way no matter who was on the ticket.

Debate Shy

When he ran in the primary, he rebuffed his Republican challengers by never showing up to any of the debates they held around the state. Walker refused to participate in the three debates that had been proposed. In the end, he agreed to do a debate in Savannah that he wanted to control. He suggested the location, and initially he wanted the debate with no audience. That didn’t happen. If you remember, Walker pulled out is fake police badge after Warnock mocked him by saying that he never posed as a cop. Walker was reprimanded. But he simply turned the other way, and in the days that followed, he gave out copies of his fake badge.

But who won’t vote for Walker. The answer is the Republicans who voted for Kemp (and therefore Walker in most cases) who won’t show up for the runoff. We were visiting our friend, Tony Hoops, owner of Satoria on the Square (Marietta). Tony is one of the most knowledgeable persons I know when it comes to politics, especially of Georgia. His view is that many Republicans came to vote for Brian Kemp to make sure that he would win a second term as governor. Many of these people also voted along the Republican names on the ticket, and thus Walker received their vote. Many of these folks probably won’t show up for the runoff. Kemp won’t be on the ticket. Walker won’t get their votes.

Why Wouldn’t Anyone Vote for Warnock?

Rev. Rafael Warnock showed how he could campaign and win over Herschel Walker. If you listen and watch Warnock’s media ads he is personal and focuses much of the time on what he has done for ordinary Georgians. He’s kept his eyes on what he thinks people want a senator to do. Instead of following the Republican strategy of demonizing the left as radical socialists, Warnock has instead stayed out of the fray of attacking his opponent. Yes, some of his ads show how Walker insisted that two women he impregnated have abortions while he preached the Republican abortion ban theme. As a pastor, Warnock has used his profession as a way to connect to people on the campaign trail.

At this time, we don’t know whether the Georgia senate race will determine who will control the U.S. senate. The race for senate in Nevada right now is too close to call. About 800 votes separate Rep. Adam Laxalt from Dem. Catherine Cortez Masto and there are still about 4500 votes to call. Most of the votes outstanding favor Cortez Masto. If she wins, the Democrats will take control of the senate. If this happens, the Georgia senate race will not determine who controls the senate. This will favor Warnock because the hysteria of Walker’s campaign will subside.

Update

in Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto won the US Senate election. The Democrats will control the Senate. The Georgia election will take different meaning, for Warnock and also Walker.