The Senate race in Georgia

The Republican race for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia has become one of the most closely watched contests in the nation.

The winner will challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in a state that has evolved from reliably Republican into one of America’s premier political battlegrounds.

Georgia voted for Donald Trump in 2024, yet Democrats have won several major statewide races in recent years, including Ossoff’s 2021 Senate victory and Raphael Warnock’s reelection in 2022. Republicans therefore see this race as both an opportunity and a test of what kind of GOP candidate can still win statewide in Georgia. 

Mike Collins

The leading Republican candidate is Mike Collins, a congressman from Georgia’s 10th District who has positioned himself as a full-throated Trump ally and MAGA populist. Collins has campaigned aggressively on immigration, cultural conservatism, and loyalty to Trump. His style is confrontational and unapologetically partisan, designed to energize the Republican base rather than appeal to moderates. Polling has generally shown him leading the primary field, largely because he has consolidated many pro-Trump voters. 

Yet Collins also embodies the Republican Party’s dilemma in Georgia. His social media posts and inflammatory rhetoric have generated controversy, and critics argue that he could alienate suburban independents who helped Democrats win statewide races over the past decade. Some Republicans fear Collins resembles the flawed candidacy of Herschel Walker in 2022, whose erratic campaign cost the GOP a Senate seat many believed was winnable. Collins clearly excites conservative activists, but the question is whether his brand of combative MAGA politics can build the broader coalition necessary to defeat Ossoff in a competitive general election.

Collins has not supported the city of Social Circle in their fight against the Department of Homeland Security. The department has purchased a huge empty warehouse to house as many as 10,000 undocumented immigrants. Collin’s turned h his back on the city of 5,000. You can read more about this case here.

Buddy Carter

Buddy Carter offers a somewhat different version of conservatism. Carter, who represents Georgia’s coastal 1st District, has emphasized border security, law enforcement, and traditional Republican themes of fiscal restraint and conservative governance. Unlike Collins, Carter has decades of political experience, having served as mayor, state legislator, and congressman before entering the Senate race. 

Carter’s challenge is less about ideology than political energy. He is conservative enough for Republican primary voters, but he has struggled to generate the enthusiasm surrounding Collins. In many ways, Carter represents the older Republican establishment — experienced, disciplined, and policy-focused — at a time when the GOP base increasingly rewards confrontation and outsider rhetoric. Still, Carter may be the candidate best prepared for a statewide campaign against Ossoff. He lacks Collins’ political baggage and could appeal more effectively to suburban Republicans uneasy with extreme rhetoric. Yet in the current Republican climate, electability arguments often lose to ideological intensity.

He also has failed talk about important issues, especially climate change.

Derek Dooley

Derek Dooley is a former football coach and son of Georgia Bulldogs coach Vince Dooley. Unlike Collins and Carter, Dooley comes from outside elective politics, presenting himself as a pragmatic outsider capable of uniting Republicans across factions.

Importantly, he has received strong backing from outgoing Governor Brian Kemp, who remains one of the most popular Republicans in Georgia. Kemp’s support signals a deliberate effort by establishment Republicans to avoid nominating another controversial candidate who could squander a favorable opportunity. 

Dooley’s candidacy reflects the continuing influence of Georgia football culture in state politics, but his outsider status cuts both ways. On one hand, voters frustrated with Washington may find his nonpolitical background refreshing.

On the other hand, critics question whether celebrity and family name recognition are sufficient qualifications for the Senate.

Republicans learned painful lessons from Herschel Walker’s failed Senate run, and some may wonder whether nominating another football figure carries unnecessary risks.

Nevertheless, Dooley may be the Republican most capable of competing for moderate suburban voters while still retaining conservative support.  He never involved himself in politics and even admitted that didn’t vote in major elections. I’ve listened to him, and he no match against Jon Ossoff.

Jonathan McColumn

The remaining candidates have little realistic chance of winning but contribute to the broader ideological texture of the race. Jonathan McColumn, a retired Army brigadier general and pastor, emphasizes military leadership, patriotism, and conservative social values. His campaign appeals primarily to deeply conservative grassroots voters and veterans, though he has not gained significant traction in polling. 

John Coyne III

John Coyne III represents the perennial outsider candidate who enters races with limited institutional support and little chance of victory. His candidacy underscores the populist openness of modern Republican primaries, where nontraditional candidates can sometimes gain attention, though Coyne has remained on the margins of the contest. 

Ultimately, this Republican primary is about more than personalities. It is a struggle over the future direction of the Georgia Republican Party. Collins represents the Trump-driven populist wing; Carter embodies traditional conservatism; and Dooley offers a hybrid outsider model backed by the party establishment. The stakes are enormous because Ossoff has become one of the Democrats’ strongest Senate incumbents, with impressive fundraising and growing political experience. Republicans know that candidate quality matters in Georgia, perhaps more than in any other Southern battleground state. 

Finances

I decided to look at finances in this campaign, including Ossoff.

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Jon Ossoff	$77.98M	$50.57M	$31.74M
Buddy Carter	$6.71M	$6.00M	$3.73M
Mike Collins	$4.32M	$2.79M	$2.13M
Derek Dooley	$3.67M	$1.45M	$2.

The two lesser-known Republicans, Jonathan McColumn and John Coyne III, do not appear in the major FEC-summary reporting I found, suggesting they are financially marginal compared with Carter, Collins, and Dooley. 

The Republican spending tells us something important: this is less a contest of governing ideas than a contest over Trump loyalty, television visibility, and anti-Ossoff branding. Carter has spent heavily and loaned his campaign millions. Collins has built a MAGA identity. Dooley is being lifted by Kemp-world as a supposedly more electable alternative.  The winner has a lot of work to do. Ossoff has been watching and also pulling in more funding. Add $20 million to his cash on hand.

What are they ignoring? The future.

They talk about the border, “America First,” crime, transgender athletes, and loyalty to Trump.

But, like their fellow governor candidates, they are largely avoiding the deeper issues that will define Georgia’s next generation: climate change and coastal flooding; public education and teacher shortages; rural hospitals and health care access; AI and job displacement; voting rights; gun violence; democratic erosion; affordable housing; and the moral cost of mass deportation politics.

Dooley has at least mentioned housing costs and workforce training, but even that appears secondary to the larger Republican culture-war frame.  And he has no experience in any of these issues.

Compared with Jon Ossoff, none of the Republicans has the same combination of Senate experience, investigative background, fundraising capacity, and demonstrated command of national issues. Carter has congressional experience. Collins has political aggression. Dooley has name recognition and Kemp’s backing. McColumn has military experience.

But Ossoff has already served in the Senate since 2021, built a national fundraising machine, and developed a reputation for disciplined messaging and investigative oversight. 

My judgment: Carter is the most conventionally qualified Republican; Dooley may be the most electable because if name recognition and the pigskin; Collins is the most dangerous demagogue; McColumn is honorable but underpowered; Coyne is not a serious contender.

None appears to match Ossoff’s preparation, intelligence, or seriousness for the Senate.

Summary

The Republican primary for the U.S. Senate seat in Georgia features candidates vying to challenge incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff. Mike Collins, a Trump ally, leads with a confrontational style, but raises concerns about alienating moderates. Buddy Carter represents traditional conservatism but struggles for excitement, while Derek Dooley, backed by Governor Kemp, aims to unify factions as a pragmatic outsider. Other candidates, Jonathan McColumn and John Coyne III, add to the race’s diversity but lack significant traction. Ultimately, the contest reflects broader ideological struggles within the GOP, with Ossoff currently positioned as a formidable incumbent.