I initially published this post on February 2. On February 23, Putin ordered the Russian military to invade Ukraine. The invasion was inhumane. Millions of lives will uprooted and many will die because of the mistrust and lack of communication between Russia and the west. Some historians say that this could have avoided. I explored the reasons that they assert that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine. But this situation is very complicated and is full of false promises, not living up to agreements that were made among key countries, including Ukraine, Russia and European states.
NATO’s decades long creep to the East has intensified and anguished our Russian colleagues. When I first started traveling to the USSR in 1981, the map below was an accurate depiction of European countries. Today, Russia has moved more than 100,000 troops, tanks and armaments to the eastern border of Ukraine.
This situation could have been avoided, or never have happened if it weren’t for the West’s inability or refusal to communicate honestly, talk with compassion, discuss openly to develop lasting relationships with Russians.
Why are we so close to an all out war?
We are close to an all out war because of the United States’ insistence that NATO convince Eastern European and some of the states of the former USSR to come over and join NATO. This was a huge blunder and has brought to the present possibility of another European war. I blame this situation of President Bill Clinton, whose foreign policy resume hampered his ability to think out of the box. Joining Clinton, the blame also rests squarely with George W. Bush. He opened the flood gates to anyone east of Germany to join NATO, and then he invaded Iraq which was one of worst decisions made by an American president. The invasion, which was not warranted, and was illegal, did not advance relations with Russia. The Ukrainian border situation is causing the media to salivate with news reports predicting a momentary invasion of Ukraine. It’s possible, of course, but there is a way out of this mess, but it will require honest communication among a few grown men and women.
The history leading up to this moment in American and Russian relations is telling and dangerous. The U.S. and Russia have ground based and submarine based launch vehicles which can carry mega-nuclear bombs thousands of miles within minutes to blow the smithereens out of anything in their sight. The nuclear threat reflects a deep psychological illness that has led to the normalization of behavior that has put the entire living world in danger of extinction. This is an example of an existential malignant normality. Another one is climate change.
Clinton and Bush Blunders
During the 90s, especially during the Clinton administration and then continuing to the George Bush/Dick Cheney administration, communication with Russia was done primarily in the interest of the United States. Although there is some controversy over whether President Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not advance to the east when Germany unified after the Berlin Wall came down, the fact is that U.S. government administrations encouraged expansion and invited into NATO in 1999 three countries (Poland, Czech Republic, & Hungary), and then in 2004 and 2009, eleven more countries (see figure 3) for details.
Rajan Menon (1) considers the expansion of NATO a strategic blunder putting all of Europe into an untenable situation. About five years ago, a close Russian friend who lives in Moscow area wrote and was deeply concerned with the NATO troop activity in several NATO states located a few kilometers from the Russian border. News reports alarmed him and many of his friends said that these provocations were a prelude to an invasion by NATO forces into Russia.
At the time, I tried to assure him that these were simply military exercises. But I later agreed with him, and felt that these were provocations and only deepened the chasm which had developed during the 21st Century with Russia and the West.
Neutrality?
Fortunately, Putin’s actions along the Ukrainian border have intensified talks and some diplomacy. Biden and other leaders of the West need to try and understand Putin’s position and his fear that Ukraine will join NATO and the European Union. Continued threats will not bring people to the table for serious talks. Perhaps a bit of creativity and openness will. The West can unify and compromise with Russia and at the same time support Ukraine. Having 150,000 troops breathing down on the eastern boarder of your country isn’t a way to solve the problem. The troops need to go home, but there must be assurances that the West will not rush in and advance an invitation to Ukraine to come into the European Union. I think that if Ukraine declared neutrality the door could be opened for discussion.
War
Unfortunately, Russia invaded Ukraine, and the two countries are at war. The invasion is an outcome of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014 in the Ukrainian separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the Russian State Duma ruled on February 15, 2022 that the areas should be recognized as independent republics. Furthermore, Putin, in a speech shortly after the Duma announcement, said that Ukraine was created by Russia, during the Soviet period and never should have been separated from the Russian Federation.
In the lead up to the invasion of Ukraine, Russian military moved into the Donbas area as “peacekeepers.” This action was declared an invasion by the West. Ukraine declared a state of emergency. Diplomacy collapsed at this point. Russia staged a massive invasion of Ukraine.
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(1). Rajan Menon, The Strategic Blunder that Led to Today’s Conflict in Ukraine, February 10, 2022, The Nation.
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