Mail in voting was the subject of my most recent post. There was a flurry of comments on that post, which was titled Most U.S. Citizens Can Vote By Mail.

Most comments have been positive. But some people were really upset about absentee and mail in voting. One person questioned me because I was a professor and from Massachusetts. Another person said I should take these ideas and put them where the “sun don’t shine.” And then, another person said that voting by mail has fraud written all over it. People had strong opinions on mail in voting. Their opinions are important. I’ve used these to develop the ideas in this post.

Let’s start by reviewing the history of voting in our country, with some emphasis on mail in voting. Finally, we’ll consider other factors that affect voting.

10 Things About Absentee and Mail In Voting

When do you think absentee voting began? Was it in the 19th, 20th or 21st century? How did soldiers in WWII vote? Are there any states which has only vote by mail? What is the voting rights act? Are there any fees for voting. Here are some ideas or tidbits about voting.

1. The Constitution grants states the power to set voting policy. Most states limited voting to property-owning or tax-paying white males. This was who could vote in the first presidential election in 1789. However, there were four northern states in which free Black males could vote. Women could vote in N.J. until 1807.
2. The first absentee ballots were issued by Union and Confederate troops on the battlefields during the Civil War. So, as far back as the early 1860’s it was possible to vote by “mail.” Legal challenges and public skepticism didn’t prevent voting from afar from happening. Now, in 2020, with voting by mail sure to rise because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Trump and his sycophants are claiming mail in ballots would be fraudulent. We know this is a false claim. See below for more on this.
3. In the late 1800s, it was possible to use absentee ballots for civilians who were away from home or seriously ill.
4. The 15th Amendment was passed in 1870, eliminating racial barriers to Black men; but southern states used poll taxes, literacy tests, fraud and intimidation to prevent black men from voting.
5. In 1920, the 19th Amendment passed giving women the right to vote. Twenty-six million woman could now vote. African-American women were part of the suffragists movement. They not only sought the right to vote, but advocated for suffrage, but civil rights for African-Americans. Most Southern states (VA, AL, FL, SC, GA, LA, NC, MS) did not ratify the Amendment until between 1951 – 1984.
6. During WWII Congress passed laws so troops stationed oversees could vote. Ballots traveled from the battlefield to boards of elections across the U.S.
7. In 1965, The Voting rights act was passed to enforce the 15th Amendment. The act secured the right to vote for racial minorities throughout the country, especially in the South. Voting is now enforced federally. Thank you, John Lewis and the other Civil Rights Activists of the 50s and 60s. However, in 2013, the Supreme Court struck down a key part of the Voting Rights Act, freeing nine states (mostly in the South) to change their election laws without advance approval. Voter suppression is still an ongoing assault on the right to vote in many states, especially in the South.
8. In the 1980s, California became the first state to allow absentee ballots for any reason, including convenience. According to this report by the California Secretary of State’s Office, nearly 40% of Californians voted by mail.
9. Three states use only absentee ballots that can be mailed or dropped at polling stations. These include Oregon (1998), Washington (2011), and Colorado (2013). Here is a brief history of vote by mail in Oregon.
10. The Georgia Secretary of State and county election officials encourage voters to use mail in ballots in the 2020 general election. I received an application letter today. Many states sent out similar letters. U.S. election administration is decentralized. The administration of elections at the state level is depends on who is the chief election officer, secretary of state, lieutenant governor, selected chief election officer, board of directors, etc.

Voting and voting rights has a history as long as the formation of the United States. Although voting in person has been the mode of voting in the U.S., the points listed above provide factual information that absentee and mail in voting have been part of voting protocols in America. Voter fraud is rare, and even rarer with mail in voting, as described in this article on MarketWatch.

Some Data to Ponder

There are 25 states that allow citizens to vote by mail without having to claim any excuse. Since the 2016 election, more and more states are making it easier to vote by mail.

Take a look at the graph and the map from the MIT Election Lab. The graph shows how our modes of voting have changed since the 1992 general election. We either vote early, vote by mail, or go to the polls on election day. We have preferred to go to polling stations on election day to vote. But that is changing. Both early voting, and mail in voting are increasing. During the last general election more than 30% of us either voted early or mailed in our ballot. 60% of us voted on election day. This number will decrease this year due largely to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The map shows how each state votes: mail only (purple), absentee on request, no excuses (orange), absentee on request, excuse required (green). This map is based on the 2016 election, and some of the states that required an excuse to get an absentee ballot have dropped that requirement.

Voter Confidence

There were some people who were outright mad and angry about the notion of voting by mail. These few people showed no confidence in letting people vote by mail. They, like Donald Trump, claimed that mail in voting will result in fraudulent votes. Yet, everywhere I look for research articles to answer the question about fraudulent votes, I come up with the same answer. Little to no fraud. When there is fraud it is discovered, and those involved punished by law. And one thing that I found was that vote my mail was less likely subject to fraud.

Confidence in voting is an important aspect of the American democracy. It may surprise you what impacts our confidence in the vote.

Do we have confidence in American elections? Have election boards made sure that voting will be transparent, and smoothly carried out? American’s opinions on the quality of elections is whether your candidate won or lost.

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If you look at Figure 3, you will see a plot of voter confidence in the last presidential elections. Note that the confidence level is dependent on whether your party won, or lost. There appears to be one exception in this data, and that happened in the 2008 election between Barack Obama and John McCain. In this election both Republicans and Democrats had high confidence in the election. In all the other elections confidence depended on who won or lost.

The 2020 Election

Voter interest is very high in the 2020 election. As a result, President Trump has announced if he loses the election, it will be because it was rigged. To him there is no way he can lose with out a rigged and fraudulent election. And the culprit is mail in voting. Trump rails and wines about nearly everyday. It’s part of his plan to discredit the general election.

On the other side of this coin, is the fear that Trump has done everything in his power to convince Americans that there is fraud just waiting to happen only a stamp away. He has torn into any state (except Florida where he uses an absentee ballot) that allows vote by mail. Trump knows that most states have provisions that make it very easy for people to vote by mail. He conveniently ignores the fact that at least three states that only vote by mail. 240 million people Are registered to vote in the U.S. Approximately 180 million American voters could vote by mail in November. As a result, the data from past elections would suggest that about 1/3 of these folks would either vote early, or vote by mail. About 30 million would choose vote by mail.

The Pandemic’s Effect

Enter the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has changed the formula and has slowed the process of voting. The six foot social distancing policy has made going through polling stations slower. Also, because older citizens (such as myself) are more susceptible to the coronavirus, making workers for the polling stations harder to find. The pandemic has created the situation where more people will choose to vote by mail.

Donald Trump melted down over the idea of more folks voting by mail. He has made it clear that if he loses, he will call The election a fraud. He has railed against mail in voting, and messaged that it will result in millions and millions of rigged votes. I believe that his constant melting about mail in voting will affect people’s confidence in the 2020 election results.

And, many people and politicians are concerned about the status of the United State Postal Service (USPS). Recently, there has been evidence that the postal service is poised to decommission 671 of the massive mail sorting machines. This is about 10% of its inventory. Further, blue mailboxes have been removed and stacked for disposal. As a result of this, and the appointment of a new Postmaster General, a close friend and donor of Donald Trump, there has been a movement across the country to protest any changes to the USPS in the run up to the election.

This is an ongoing story. Today, the Postmaster General is scheduled to meet with the a Senate Committee.

In the meantime, we need to educate ourselves about the 2020 election. I hope this blog post has provided some factual information and history of voting. Now….

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