The goal of community mitigation is to slow the spread of a novel influenza. Coupled with the fact that social distancing and other mitigation methods work, why have we waited to implement community mitigation throughout the United States.

Georgia implemented a statewide stay at home order yesterday. Why did Georgia’s governor wait so long, when the evidence was very clear that coronavirus cases were accelerating at different locations in the state. The state has a number of hot spots, and they are not only in the metro-Atlanta area.

The White House Coronavirus Task Force has been slow to take urgent action, primarily because of Trump. He refuses to personally embrace what experts on the Task Force recommend. Even today, when it was recommended that Americans cover their face with mask of some sort when they go out, all Trump would say,”Well, I know I won’t wear one.”

The Task Force should immediately tell all states to put a stay in place order now. The evidence is very clear that these mitigation strategies can work.

State Orders of Community Mitigation

Not all states have stay in place orders. The states who have resisted are simply keeping people in harms way. They are all led by Republican governors. The virus is in those states, and unless they use some form of mitigation, the coronavirus will spread. The map of the U.S. shows the actions that states have taken to mitigate the virus. Click on the map and you will be taken to a KFF map. Scroll down the page to the interactive map. Clicking on the “state Action” bar will reveal several actions such as Stay At Home Order, School Closures, etc.

Alabama has just put into practice a stay at home order. But look at the central part of the United States. Do those states think they are immune to COVID-19? In some states, even those with stay in place orders, some locations are open. Are they crazy? This action is dangerous and should be stopped immediately.

Lessons From Other Countries

While we waited, other countries were putting into practice a variety of mitigation plans. There are three that I would like to shine a light on, and they are Spain, Italy and South Korea.

You can check Global Coronavirus Cases on a John Hopkins to learn about COVID-19, including the number of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered cases. Figure 2 is a chart displaying coronavirus data on Spain, Italy, South Korea and the United States.

COVID-19 has hit Italy and Spain hard. Nearly 10% of people with confirmed cases in these two countries died as a result of COVID-19. Each country ordered stay in place mitigation strategies, as well isolation of individuals who tested positive.

Dennis Adams has shared data and graphical analyses that are pertinent to this discussion about mitigation, as well as previous posts on the coronavirus epidemic. Dennis, a retired civil engineer living on the Canary Islands, was introduced to me by Jean Sanders, a friend and colleague in Massachusetts.

The first graph I received from Dennis is shown in Figure 3. It’s quite an important graph. It shows that Spain might be beginning to turn the corner. For the first time since beginning mitigation, the coronavirus cases are starting to lessen. Notice that the actual Spanish data is beginning to deviate from the theoretical expected growth. If you look at the smaller graph superimposed on the larger graph, the trend in daily cases is down. This is what we want. This means that Spain’s mitigation strategies are getting ahead of the virus.

Comparisons Among 4 Countries

The United States should pay attention to the efforts to contain the pandemic in Spain, Italy and South Korea. The United States has more than 300,000 COVID-19 cases, more than any nation in the world.

First, let’s take a look at this graph provided by Dennis Adams comparing these three countries. South Korea, Italy and Spain are compared to the theoretical predicted coronavirus cases. Italy and Spain are beginning to show progress. According to Spain’s prime minister, the current stay at home mitigation will be extended until at least April 11. Although there is evidence that the virus spread is slowing, the PM said that nothing would change until the curve of the coronavirus pandemic is flattened.

South Korea flattened the curve very soon after diagnosing COVID-19 cases. You can see that the line for South Korea is flat, and has been for more than 20 days. Korea took an extensive contact tracing and testing approach, followed by isolation. According to one report, as soon as the first cases were reported in late January, and then surged a few weeks later, the government launched a contact-tracing and testing regime to identify and then isolate infected people.

South Korea has tested more people per capita than any other country in the world. South Korea only had about 10,000 cases (Figure 2) as of April 3, as well as few deaths. Some human rights groups have cautioned that South Korea’s disclosure of private information In order to do contact-tracing is a concern. On the other hand, in one survey, South Korea’s public supports the publishing of individuals’ movements.

Community Mitigation in the United States

The first COVID-19 case was reported on January 19, 2020 in the state of Washington. Now, 77 days later, the U.S. has 301, 902 diagnosed cases of the coronavirus. The figure below shows linear and logarithmic scales for COVID-19 cases in the United States. The implementation of mitigation strategies in the U.S. has been slipshod. The lack of thought and organization at the Federal level has put the U.S. in a dangerous situation as of April 4.

Although the White House has a COVID-19 Task Force, and has three strong scientists on the task force, it has Donald Trump. Trump’s history on the coronavirus has been careless and continues to this day. The Trump COVID-19 timeline shows how he disregarded and denied the seriousness of the coronavirus for more than 70 days after the first cases were reported in Wuhan, China. Even now, he disrespects the scientific advice from the task force. When they suggested that people use face masks when they go out of their homes, he said, remember its optional, and I won’t be wearing a face mask.

There are a lot of people in the U.S. who don’t think the coronavirus is any different the flu. This simply not true. There are still eight governors who have not ordered stay in place mitigation strategies.

We need to listen to Dr. Anthony Fauci and his colleagues. We need to seek the truth about the virus from scientists and physicians. Dr. Fauci is urging Americans to work together to mitigate against the virus. Dr. Fauci commented that the country is “struggling to get the novel virus outbreak under control. He put it this way

“So on the one hand, things are going to get bad and we need to be prepared for that,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said. “It’s going to be shocking to some. It’s certainly is really disturbing to see that. But that’s what’s going to happen before it turns around. So just buckle down, continue to mitigate, continue to do the physical separation because we’ve got to get through this week that’s coming up because it is going to be a bad week.”

Smith, Allan. “Fauci: ‘We Are Struggling to Get’ the Coronavirus Outbreak ‘under Control’.” NBCNews.com, NBCUniversal News Group, 5 Apr. 2020, www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fauci-we-are-struggling-get-coronavirus-outbreak-under-control-n1177131.

It’s Time for Community Mitigation