I’ve wondered what is the main cause of wildfires raging in the West. Are the fires linked to climate change? What role do humans play in starting fires? Are there more fires this year than in the past? Why? Finally, the toll on human and other animal and plant life is immense.
I googled “sources of information wildfires” and found this drone footage of the sky over San Francisco. You don’t have to watch all four minutes, but if you scroll ahead, you’ll see the thick mass of smoke in the air above the city. In short, you’ll be shocked.
We lived in the Bay area more than 30 years ago. In those days, I was an avid runner. Not so much, now. I can’t imagine walking outside beginning a run, and seeing this across the bay from our home on Bay Farm Island, located in the town of Alameda. Although we don’t live in California now, we have family and many friends who live up and down the coast.
Australia Wildfires
What we see in California, Oregon and Washington is what we saw last year in Australia. See figures 2 and 3 to compare these fires. Friends of ours in Burra, South Australia were on alert and ready to evacuate starting in October, 2019. The Australian Bushfires burned for nine months until all were extinguished or contained. The bushfires were devastating. Billions of animals were killed. Firefighters and some Australians lost their lives. Thousands of square miles of land were burned. Thousands of buildings, including homes were destroyed. Finally, smoke from the fires circled the globe for months.
The fires in the West appear to be a repeat of the Australian bushfires. Is this what we can expect in the years ahead? In other words, is this the result of a climate crisis.
Timelines of Fires in the West
Wildfires in California are growing more dangerous. The accumulation of wood fuel in forests and higher population is a problem. Also, greater electricity transmission and distribution lines have caused fires, and one of the worst in Paradise. Climate change maybe the major factor. The acreage burned in California for each year since 2000. The biggest wildfires in California history are shown in Figure 5.
Wildfires are playing havoc on the West Coast. It’s important to keep in mind that wildfires have been part of the ecology of the West, even before the 1800s. Millions of acres burned.
Figure 6 is a process chart of the number fires during the period 2000 – 2019. The blue horizontal line is the overall average of fires during this period. The tick marks on the vertical lines are the upper and lower control limits. Please note that the number of fires, even though the number of fires varies, is within the control limits. We should expect that the number of fires in the future to be within these control limits.
However, according to Cal Fire, in 2020, there have been 7,718 fires that have burned 3,154,107 acres. Twenty people died. and nearly 5,000 structures have been destroyed. More acreage burned than any other year.
Climate Change
Wildfires are a natural part of the landscapes in California and other Western states. However, the fire season is starting earlier and lasting longer. This is a climate change trend. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection published a report a year ago which made recommendation for fire prevention and mitigation. Climate change, dead and dying trees, and the development of new homes in areas close to wildlands will create the perfect storm for wildfires going forward.
Climate change is a major force that has created a longer fire season. Higher temperatures have reduced the moisture levels in forests. Lower annual snow melt means dryers conditions. The conditions in California continue to cause more severe wildfires.
This year has been one of the worst on record, not only in California, but in Oregon and Washington. Take a look at the most recent year of fires reported in California. Note that the acreage burned for 2020 is outside the upper control limits of acreage burned since 2020. Something significant is happening this year. Prior to this year, the most acreage burned was nearly 2,000,000 acres. More than 5,000,000 acres have burned so far this year. The fire season is only half over. This is further evidence for climate change acting as a force in California fires.
Climate change is acting as a force-multiplier that will increasingly exacerbate wildland fire issues over the coming decades. The state can expect to experience longer fire seasons, increased frequency and severity of drought, greater acreage burned and related impacts such as widespread tree mortality and bark beetle infestation. Decades of fire suppression have disrupted natural fire cycles and added to the problem.
Community Wildfire Prevention & Mitigation Report, California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, 2019.p. 4.
Unfortunately, the Republican party has denied the science of climate change. Trump refuses to accept any part of the science, and continues to claim that forest management (raking the forest floor) is the cause of wildfires.
Conclusion
Wildfires will continue to affect the western part of the United States. Data collected for nearly 40 years shows the effects of climate change, forest management, and human development.
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