Teaching and learning about Hurricanes has been a interest of mine for many years, beginning as an Earth science teacher in Lexington, Massachusetts, and then extending to the writing of textbooks for elementary and middle school students.  In 2005, right after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and New Orleans, I created a website entitled Hurricane Katrina: A Citizen Resource to further our understanding of hurricane Katrina.

Right now, just as Hurricane Gustav is moving inland, there are several hurricanes and tropical storms lined up in the Atlantic, as seen in the map below.  According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, the 2008 hurricane season was predicted to be higher than normal.  It’s important to note that although NOAA makes seasonal hurricane predictions, it does not make hurricane landfall predictions.  Because regional weather conditions, its difficult to make these kinds of predictions more then 5-7 days in advance.  According to NOAA, the following predictions were made before the 2008 hurricane season which occurs during the period August 7 – November 30:

• 14 – 18 names storms
• 7 – 10 hurricanes
• 3 – 6 major hurricanes

These predictions are based on several factors, factors that your students could investigate.  According to NOAA, the following are influencing hurricane activity:

• the above average hurricane activity (follow this link for a graph of hurricane activity 1950 – 2007) since 1995
• above average sea-surface temperatures
• the existence of La Niña in the Pacific Ocean
• a strong early-season activity, with the longest July hurricane on record (Bertha)

The Atlantic line-up of hurricanes on September 3

As seen in this map, Hurricane Hanna is now tracking northeast of Cuba.  Hanna is expected to intensify, and hit the southeastern coast of the USA sometime Friday or Saturday.  Right behind Hanna is Hurricane Ike, which in the last few hours has intensified to a Category 3.  Josephine is right behind.

Hanna is forcast to reach land somewhere north of the Georgia coast either in South Carolina or North Carolina.  Accuweather reported an interesting insight into the paths that hurricanes take that are in the current position of Hanna.  According to the report, storms centered near the Bahamas ocassionally hit south Florida, but rarely hit the coast from Daytona, FL to Savannah, GA.  The map below shows this in graphical form.

Source: Accuweather.com---historical predicitive path of hurricanes such as Hanna along the Southeaster Coast.