On April 20, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp decided to let some businesses open their doors on Friday, April 24th.

These include gyms, fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, cosmetologists, hair designers, nail care artists, estheticians, their respective schools, and massage therapists. These businesses must adhere to Minimum Basic Operations (MBO) which includes, but is not limited to, screening workers for fever and respiratory illness, enhancing workplace sanitation, wearing masks and gloves if appropriate, separating workspaces by at least six feet, teleworking where at all possible, and implementing staggered shifts.

On Monday, April 27 you will be able to go to theaters, private social clubs, and restaurants for dine-in services.

For many in the state, and around the country, this announcement blind-sided some, while astounding others. The first set of businesses to be opened are hands-on services, making it difficult for people to practice social distancing. There will be no way for clients or business owners to know if the coronavirus is lurking in anyone. Taking one’s temperature is not an indicator of the COVID-19 infection. We know that people can be infected, but show no signs what-so-ever.

Even the Governor admits, since more people will be milling around, that infections and deaths will occur. The question is, at what rate? Will the number of cases increase, resulting in a second peak.

Georgia has decided to open up for business, but the big fear is that coronavirus cases will surge again. To keep the pandemic under control, strategic testing systems will be needed, and they will need to be scaled up fast. Georgia does not have a rigorous testing program.

Coronavirus Cases in Georgia

Take a look at Figure 1. There are two lines that describe real and hypothetical cases of COVID-19 in Georgia. The red line traces new confirmed cases reported for each day up to April 20. I’ve assumed that the cases will go down if we were not to open the state as Kemp has done. The black line shows what could happen if there is a “second” surge in COVID-19. As more people mingle with each other, there surely will be more infections. I’m being hypothetical here. However, we have data from the 1918 Flu showing what happened to various American cities when they relaxed mitigation plans, just as Governor Kemp has done in the state of Georgia. In the 1918 Flu, cities that relaxed plans, showed a second, even third peak of flu. This could happen in Georgia.

Take a look at Figure 1 again. There are two issues to consider in the graph. Notice that the curves are not symmetrical. Dr. Cathy O’Neil explained why the COVID-19 curves are not symmetrical in one of her blog posts published on Bloomberg. Most of the charts that are shown at the daily Trump media circus are perfectly symmetrical. But in reality that’s not what to expect. Using Italy and Spain as examples, they both had uncontrolled outbreaks and initiated lockdowns, which led to overburdened hospitals. Notice in the graph for Spain (Figure 2) that the number of infections went up fast, but they are going down very slowly. It will take much longer for the virus to “go away” than when it arrived. This will be true in Georgia.

The Evidence for Opening Is Not There

The mayors of Georgia’s two largest cities, Atlanta and Augusta are very concerned about the Governor’s decision to open the state. Atlanta is in Fulton County.

Cases Keep Increasing

Fulton County has the highest number of cases in the state. As of 4/20/20 the country had 2212 cases, and there is no evidence that the number is decreasing. Take a look at the graph in Figure 3 created by Ed Johnson. He’s tracked the cases in the county over time, and on each day made a prediction for the following day. We don’t see any decrease in the number of cases in Fulton County.

The data in this chart is based on the COVID-19 Daily Status Report from the Georgia Department of Public Health.

People Keep Dying

Dougherty County is located in Southwest Georgia, and has been ravaged by the coronavirus with more than 1,446 cases, and 103 deaths. More people have died in Dougherty County than in any other Georgia county. The graph, created by Ed Johnson, shows that the death rate has not slowed in Dougherty County.

Still Unusually High Number of Cases Around the State

Georgia is not out of the woods. This why so many people are surprised that the Governor has ignored the science that accumulated on the coronavirus. What data did he use to make his decision. He said he referred to the President’s crack Coronavirus Task Force. But even the White House standards say that to open up for business, states will need at least 14 days with fewer cases.

Take a look at these two control charts compiled by Ed Johnson using state of Georgia COVID-19 cases by counties. The graph show the number of cases per 10,000 person in the counties listed. Notice that some of the counties’ cases fall above the upper dashed line. This indicates that the number of infections in the named county is more unusual than the number of infections in other counties.

Not only are there cases in each county, but it turns out that some counties have an unusually high number.

In Sum

The coronavirus is present but not accounted for in the state of Georgia. As seen in Figure 6, the risk of hospitalizations and deaths is still a great concern in Georgia. As seen in the graph, Georgia’s rate is increasing, although not as much as New York.

According to the data presented here, the evidence does not support the Georgia governor’s decision to open some businesses this week. Let’s hope that he is right and I’m wrong.