Preface
The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025, is already having deep effects on science. It also has long-lasting impacts on research and public health. While shutdowns have unfortunately become almost routine in the last decade, this one is different in scale and intent.
President Trump’s administration has signaled mass layoffs (Reductions in Force, or RIFs) across federal agencies. These include those employing tens of thousands of scientists. That combination of funding lapse and deliberate workforce downsizing makes this shutdown especially consequential.
I was very involved with NSF and other federal and state funding agencies. I participated in an NSF summer institute to study PSSC Physics. This was at Illinois Institute of Technology. I taught high school science during that time. I also received an NSF Academic Year Institute at Ohio State in 1966. I was a professor of science education at Georgia State University. I received grants from NSF and the United States Information Agency. and an author on two NSF science curriculum projects. This report is personal. I extend my support to current science educators. I also support scientists affected by this political fiasco.
Let’s break down the key effects:
1. Immediate Halt to Federally Funded Science
The shutdown has triggered a suspension of “non-essential” operations at major science agencies:
- U.S. scientists prepared for another shutdown. The Republican Congress again shuts down the government.
- NIH, and NSF.probably won’t feel immediate effects from the shutdown. Their grant payments will continue, and NIH and NSF will still accept grant applications. Many websites will go dark overnight, though. This happened in the 2013 and 2018-2019 shutdowns.
- The NIH has paused most of its in-house basic research. It has also stopped admitting new patients to its clinical center in Bethesda, Maryland. This center is a world-leading research hospital.
- At the Department of Energy (DOE), managers manage 17 national laboratories. They also run large facilities like x-ray synchrotrons and neutron sources. Managers often have enough reserve funding. This funding allows them to continue operations for a short while. Once that reserve runs out, DOE would be obligated to idle facilities. The labs, most of which are run by contractors, would have to furlough most of their employees. This situation has happened in the past.
- Most of NASA’s staff would be furloughed. Still, operations of the International Space Station would continue. Space telescopes and missions already in space would also continue.
Even temporary interruptions can cause lasting damage. Laboratory animals may need to be euthanized, experiments abandoned, and datasets rendered incomplete. Science is often cumulative and time-sensitive; lost time can’t always be made up later.
2. Threat of Mass Layoffs (Reductions in Force)
This shutdown is different from earlier ones. It comes with explicit instructions from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to agencies. Agencies should consider issuing RIF notices to employees on projects deemed inconsistent with “the President’s Priorities.”
This time, OMB Director Russ Vought is using the threat of permanent job cuts as leverage. He is also a major author of Project 2025. He is upping the ante in the standoff with Democrats in Congress over government spending. Trump, in public appearances relishes this idea. By the way, Trump denied any knowledge of Project 2025 during the 2024 presidential campaign. He now embraces the project. He ought to. His name is mentioned over 400 times in the Project 2025 900+ page report (I checked this myself).
In the Project 2025 report, Vought made it clear. The underlying goal is to centralize all executive power in the presidency. The departments that form the executive branch of government will be in the hands of the president. Mass firing is a unity plan to solidify power to the holder of the Oval Office. What we see happening is laid out in Project 2025. I recommend you download a free copy and peruse it.
This is unprecedented. If carried out:
- Institutional knowledge would be permanently lost from key scientific agencies.
- Programs not simply pause; they can be dismantled altogether.
- Experienced scientists are pushed out. This is especially true for those working on climate, environmental, and biomedical research. Such changes disrupt not just projects but entire research networks. This is not new. Hundreds of experienced scientists have already left the federal workforce. Most recently, four of the top scientists resigned from the CDC after Kennedy fired the CDC director.
The Trump administration already projects cutting 300,000 federal workers by year’s end, on top of the shutdown effects. This would fundamentally reshape the federal scientific workforce. It will also make it easier for a corrupt president to inflict harm on a smaller government.
3. Ripple Effects on Academic and Private Research
Federal funding is the backbone of basic science in the U.S., which fuels innovation in universities and private industry alike. A prolonged shutdown would:
- Delay grant competitions and peer reviews, creating bottlenecks that ripple through research calendars for months.
- Freeze new awards, jeopardizing hiring plans for postdocs and graduate students.
- Undermine confidence in the reliability of U.S. science funding, making long-term projects riskier to pursue.
University labs operating on thin margins face difficult decisions. They need to furlough staff or shut down experiments. This is particularly true if this shutdown lasts as long as the 35-day closure in 2018–2019.
4. Public Health and Medical Research Consequences
Public health functions rely heavily on NIH, CDC, and FDA. Even brief disruptions can have serious consequences:
- All non-essential government services will be stopped. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed.
- US health agencies are preparing to furlough up to three quarters of their staff. Health insurance premiums rise for millions of Americans. This is because lawmakers couldn’t agree on the national budget.
- Republican and Democratic representatives were unable to agree on federal health insurance subsidies. They also could not draw up a temporary funding plan by the midnight deadline on 1 October. This triggered a federal government shutdown. All non-essential government services will be stopped. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 750,000 federal employees could be furloughed.
- In the fiscal 2026 contingency plan of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), 32,460 employees at health agencies will face furlough. The plan includes placing many employees on temporary leave. This action is part of the contingency plan. Meanwhile, 79,717 will continue to carry out essential services. The HHS oversees all national health departments.
- Clinical trials at NIH pause or slow, delaying access to experimental therapies for patients.
- Disease surveillance can be impaired if data collection and analysis are interrupted, reducing the country’s ability to detect outbreaks early.
- Regulatory work like FDA drug reviews may slow, delaying treatments and medical devices.
Moreover, the pause in admitting new patients to NIH’s hospital is not merely bureaucratic. It affects real people who are waiting for last-resort care.
5. Scientific Leadership and Morale
Shutdowns corrode morale among scientists who have chosen public service. The current situation is even more corrosive because it’s perceived as politically targeted. As NIH neuroscientist Mark Histed put it during a protest on September 29:
“American science, the gold-standard and world-leading science and innovation enterprise, is being destroyed.”
The U.S. has long depended on its federal research institutions. These include NASA, NIH, NSF, NOAA, USGS, and others. They set global standards in open science, innovation, and collaboration. A politically motivated shutdown and layoff wave risks undermining the U.S.’s scientific credibility internationally.
6. A Moment of Political Leverage
Interestingly, some scientists and policy observers see this crisis as a moment for Congress to assert checks and balances. Past shutdowns were largely stalemates over budget numbers. This one, with its explicit targeting of federal science jobs, will galvanize bipartisan resistance to executive overreach. Whether that happens depends on how long the shutdown lasts and whether negotiations restart in earnest.
Looking Ahead
The shutdown’s duration will be decisive. A short closure will still cause disruption. A prolonged shutdown could reshape the landscape of American science for a generation. This is especially true if it is accompanied by mass layoffs. We’re not just talking about delayed papers or missed conferences. We’re talking about institutional dismantling and the deliberate weakening of public science infrastructure.
This is a pivotal moment. If history is any guide, the scientific community will find ways to adapt and recover. However, the path may be long. The damage may be deep.
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