I’ll start this post by saying that Georgia is not ready to open its schools. The science does not support a decision to bring thousands of students together. Students will be brought into buildings which are not designed to hold large groups of students during a pandemic. This is especially true when students should stay six feet apart.

Many people argue that schools have opened in other parts of the world. You can find published articles about how other countries have opened. Many of these countries had lowered COVID-19 rates or as we say, “flattened the curve” before But as the authors of an article in Science point out, “It was a vast, uncontrolled experiment.” It’s surprising that the NIH and the CDC are saying that’s its ok for schools in the U.S. to open.

There are serious issues faced by students, parents, teachers, and school administrators. Yet, schools exists within the context of a community. People come and go between school and home. Schools and society are an intricate mix of relationships. In the midst of a pandemic, people need to be separated from each other. The question for schools is When can the school call students back to the classroom?

Red Lines for School Openings

A document was prepared for the White House Coronavirus Task Force. But it was not shared with the public. However, the article I am referencing here about the coronavirus red zone was originally published by the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit newsroom based in Washington, D.C. The document for the White House identified 18 states that are in the “red zone” for COVID-19 cases. The red zone means that there are more than 100 new cases per 100,000 population.

But there is more to it than simply reporting the number of cases. We need to know about the nature of the spread of the virus within the community. If the virus is spreading in the community, then it doesn’t make sense to bring kids back to school.

Is there any data that might help us answer this question? The answer lies in testing. The more we test, the more accurate a picture we have of the coronavirus in the community. The President of the United States doesn’t like the ideas of increasing the number of people that are tested. He thinks this will look bad for him. One mistake we make is focusing on people who are sick and testing them. We need to test as many people as possible. This will enable health departments to have data that will tell us what percentage of the population has the virus. Is it 20% of the population? Is it 10%? Or perhaps its only 1 or 2%

The higher this percentage, the worse off we are. Some health practitioners suggest that to open schools safely, we should aim for 5% of the population. Keeping it 5% or lower means that the virus is not spreading within the community. When the percentages increase, then it is likely the virus is spreading. Bringing people together in large groups is dangerous if the number of infections is higher than 5%.

However, many school administrators and government officials think that if 10% of population is infected then schools could open. There is a lot of pressure on schools to open. Unfortunately, here in Georgia, the positivity percentage is 13%. Some reports show it is as high as 16%. In either case, sending kids to school is not warranted.

Take a look at the chart in Figure 1. If you use the 10% red line, then more than half of country could open its schools. However, at this rate, the risk of infection is much higher than it would be if we waited to the rate to drop to 5%. And that is the 5% Red Line. In this case, 17 states could open its schools. This includes PA, MD, OH,IL, NH, VT, ME, MA, WV, NJ, MI, CT, NM, DC, NY.

The following states should not open their schools, and it will take some time to drop to secure levels. These states are MS, FL, AL, NV, ID, AZ, TX, WA, KS, UT, MO, SC, GA, AR.

WHAT NOW?

It is important for us to use the science to make decisions about the lives of our citizens. At this time, it is not prudent to open schools in ways that bring hundreds of students into a school building. We have seen examples of crowded high school corridors, with most students not wearing masks. This should not be tolerated.

We shouldn’t tolerate a governor who preached mask wearing, but doesn’t have the balls to say that everyone who goes into public must wear a mask. Face coverings are the number one way that we have to defend against the virus. Disinfecting surfaces is important, but if you are around lots of people, nothing beats a mask.