I live in one of the hotspots in the state of Georgia. The coronavirus cases are increasing in Georgia at about an 8% rate per day. In this post I provide maps and charts that will help you understand the current status of COVID-19 in the state. I wish to thank Ed Johnson for many of the figures that are included in this post.

Hotspots in Georgia

Georgia has had 7,314 cases of COVID-19 reported as positive. There have been 229 deaths as of today. There are two areas in the state that are considered to be hotspots. Several counties in the metro-Atlanta area, including Cobb (515 cases) Fulton (1027), and Dekalb (579). But surprisingly, another hotspot is Dougherty County in southwest Georgia. There have been 716 cases reported in Dougherty County. Fulton and Dougherty counties are the area in Georgia with large breakouts of COVID-19. You can follow the cases and deaths in the two side-by-side maps shown below.

If you scroll down to the larger map of the state of Georgia, you will be able to explore each county in the state by clicking on any of the counties to view the results that are shown in the side-by-side maps.

Ed Johnson’s Research

Ed Johnson, a colleague and advocate for public education in Atlanta, has been creating detailed analyses of coronavirus cases in the state of Georgia. He prepares daily supplements to the Georgia DPH COVID-19 Report. His reports can be viewed at https://tinyurl.com/20200405-COVID-19-Supplement. As he reported, the GaDPH gives two updated reports daily, one at noon, and the other in the early evening.

The first graph (Figure 1) shows the reported COVID-19 cases as of 5 Apr 2020. As Ed pointed out, nearly 85% of the cases occurred in 6 counties, Fulton, Dougherty, Dekalb, Cobb, Gwinnett, Clayton.

Figure 2 shows the distribution of deaths due to the coronavirus in Georgia. There have been more deaths in Dougherty County than any other location in the state. A funeral is thought to have sparked a covid-19 outbreak in Albany, Ga. — and led to many more funerals.

Deeper Analyses

In the next two figures, Ed has dug deeper into the data to show how some counties deviate from the expected number of cases per 10,000 persons. In Figure 3, Ed has analyzed the cases in Georgia for 5 Apr 20202. All points above the dotted upper red line are unusual. The average number of cases per 10,000 persons is 5.95. Note that 14 counties deviate above the upper Natural limit of expected cases. Dougherty County deviates the most, which is 75.2 cases per 10,000 persons. All of these cases are considered unusual.

Predictions for Fulton and Dougherty Counties

In the following figures, Ed Johnson has created graphical analyses predicting the the number of cases and deaths for Fulton County and Dougherty County, two of the hotspots in the state. In both counties, the number of cases and number of deaths has been increasing since measurement began in March. If Georgians are serious about mitigation, then we will hopefully see the number of cases and deaths decrease in the weeks ahead.

However, the increase in cases and deaths in Fulton is as expected. Ed Johnson explains:

“Please consider the following in the light of today’s Ga Department of Public Health noonday report showing the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Fulton County has now exceeded 1,000!  As you can see below, around 1,090 cases were predicted for today.  Actual number of cases? 1,027, which represents 65 new cases and an increase of 6.8 percent. 

The increase to 1,027 COVID-19 cases in Fulton County is in no way unusual or special, meaning occurrences of the disease have been increasing daily within increasing natural limits of systemic variation and will continue to increase in the near future, unless the “system” spreading the coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease is significantly halted or, as Atlanta Public Schools Leadership might say, “turned around.”

Conclusion

The data presented in this blog post shows that the COVID-19 pandemic is still in the pandemic stage. The data presented here from multiple sources, but Ed Johnson’s in particular, are sobering. What does this mean?

It means that the virus is still spreading in the state. The Stay at Home order which Governor Kemp imposed on Friday needs to stay in place probably beyond the mid-April date that was identified. Until the predictions that Ed Johnson showed in Figures 5 and 6 start to go down, we are still in trouble. And keep in mind, if this trend continues, it will impact our health care services, hospitals, and first responders.

Staying home except for food or medicine is something we need to put into practice. Social distancing is crucial at this stage of the pandemic.

You might also want to check Ed Johnson’s site for his daily updates on the coronavirus in Georgia.