Are Georgia’s college and university counties safe places to open for Fall classes? This is a complicated question. There are many variables that will affect any decision the University System of Georgia makes. To begin with, the USG is planning to open its campuses for Fall 2020. However, specific details for each institution have not been revealed.

Will students be asked to wear masks? How will we overcome social distancing? How will bringing students to campus affect classroom space considerations? What about students that do internships in public schools, or private business?

Disclaimer: I am Emeritus Professor of Science Education, Georgia State University, and was Professor at GSU from 1969 – 2003.

Twenty-Six Public Colleges and Universities

Scattered around Georgia are 26 public institutions of higher education. The largest university is Georgia State University, located in Fulton and DeKalb counties. The smallest is Atlanta Metropolitan State College located in Fulton County.

Yes, I know each college is located in city or town. But for the sake of reporting some data, I’ve chosen the county that each college is located in as a means of reporting. Why? The Georgia Department of Public Health reports COVID-19 in two ways. One is of course, the state as a whole. But the other is by county. Table 1 displays each institution, the enrollment for Fall of 2019, four statistics reported by the GDPH, cases, cases per 100K, total deaths, and hospitalizations, and county.

You can ask a number of questions using Table 1. Which institutions need to study the COVID-19 cases in its community? Not only the number of cases, but the cases per 100K. Are there any institutions located in counties with few coronavirus cases?

The institutions are spread over 24 counties. Using data from the GDPH, Ed Johnson creates daily reports using control charts. His charts give us a deeper analysis of the coronavirus in the state. One of his charts is a Pareto chart. Pareto charts are combination of line chart and bar graph. They help you narrow your focus to simplify problems.

Take a look at Figure 1. Ed has made a graph that shows the counties reporting the highest number of cases in descending order, left to right on the horizontal axis. There are 32 counties in the graph. The 32 counties contain nearly 80% of all the COVID-19 cases in the state. To see this, follow the line on graph which plots cumulative cases, and notice that nearly 80% of the COVID-19 cases are in these 32 counties. There are 161 counties in Georgia.

COVID-19 in College Counties in Georgia

About a week ago, I asked Ed Johnson if he thought there was any connection between the location of the USG’s colleges, and COVID-19 infections. Ed asked if he could give it some thought. Well, he did. I received from Ed a slide show. The slide show includes graphs of the locations of each college and university in the state. The graphs show the cumulative infections and deaths due to COVID-19. Figure 2 is a sample of the slide show. This slide shows the locations of two institutions, Georgia State University in Fulton County & DeKalb Counties and Gordon State College in Lamar County. Fulton County is among 32 or 20% significant few counties having COVID-19 cases. In the Lamar County graph, there is an unusual increase of cases from April 4 -6.

COVID-19 Cases in Georgia’s College Communities and Campuses

Many of the USG institutions of higher education are in counties that have had high rates of the coronavirus infections. If you look at Table 1, I’ve identified with a double asterisk those counties that are among the 32 counties or 20% significant few counties having COVID-19 cases. Fifteen colleges and universities are located in one of these 32 counties.

The movie below is made of Ed Johnson’s slides that he sent to me. As you view the movie, you will see two slides at each 5 second interval identifying the county and the college. Also noted will be whether the county is one of the significant few 32 counties. This is a red flag, and this fact should be considered in decisions about opening campuses.

Summary

At the top of the post, I said that the question of opening campuses in Georgia would be complicated. These charts indicate that most colleges or universities will have to consider the status of COVID-19 cases existing in their respective locations. There are number of variables to consider. How many people in college locations have been infected? Are the number of cases increasing, level, or decreasing? What is the trend of cases and deaths in each of these locations?

There are other questions to consider. How many students will return to these campuses? For example, UGA’s campus is 767 acres, whereas Georgia State University’s main campus has only 110 acres, with additional acreage on five additional campuses in Alpharetta, Clarkston, Decatur, Dunwoody, and Newton. Can these two institutions provide a safe learning environment and prevent the spread of the virus. Naturally, every campus in the USG will have to do the same.

It seems to me that we need to consider these data. Only today, the CDC released information that was somewhat daunting. An internal government report projected about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month. The report, from the New York Times, provides details about the virus’s spread throughout the country. Of particular concern to me was the status of Georgia, as shown in the report.

There are many counties in Georgia with elevated incidence growth. Unfortunately, compared to low incidence seen in some other states, Georgia has a ways to go.

We need to be concerned about the present status of this disease as it exists, and grows in the state of Georgia. We need to think and plan carefully about bringing thousands of students back into some locations in the state.

Image of Atlanta at the top of the post by 1778011 from Pixabay